Were it another era, the 2006 Detroit Tigers, which lost their last five games to blow the AL Central to the Minnesota Twins by a single game, might be recalled as one of baseball’s epic chokes rather than as the American League’s surprise representative in the World Series. And does anybody remember how the St. Louis Cardinals limped into the post-season with the worst record of any division champ in history? Nah. The Cardinals are simply champions of the world.
Thus it’s a little hard to explain why I find myself hung up over whether my hometown Boston Red Sox will finally surpass the New York Yankees in the AL East. For years I have been insisting that the Red Sox don’t really play in the AL East, but rather compete in the wild-card division against teams like the A’s, the Angels, Indians and Twins. But I am tiring of that conceit. The Red Sox team has gotten out from under those residual fears of the Yankees that plagued the team for much of the 20th century. In recent years, Boston has played New York virtually even—almost down to the run. Each year, at least on paper, the two teams seem hard to distinguish. And, of course, the Red Sox can claim a championship of more vintage than the Yankees.
Given all this apparent parity, it is beginning to gnaw at me that the Yankees are perennially supreme in the AL East, last year having run their string of division titles to nine. And I honestly have difficulty fathoming why they always wind up on top. Is it that the Yankees’ larger payroll pays off most conspicuously over the long haul of 162 games? Is it that the proud Yankees history makes anything less than a division title a disappointment? New York would never, as Boston has, break out the champagne to celebrate a wild-card berth. Or is it that George Steinbrenner has always ratcheted up the pressure so that Joe Torre manages, and the team plays, with the goal of a division title at the forefront?
But not only is it time for a change in the Red Sox approach, it may be necessary, too. The extraordinary depth of the American League makes that “wild-card division” far too competitive—no lock even if Boston finishes on New York’s tail. I give 10 of the 14 teams in the league a legitimate shot at the playoffs, eliminating only Baltimore, Tampa Bay, Kansas City and Seattle beforehand. (The National League is nowhere near as strong, but it is every bit as competitive; only the Pirates, Nationals, Marlins and Rockies will be out of contention by Sunday, Opening Day.) So the Red Sox may actually have a better chance of taking down the Yankees for the division than securing the wild-card entry.
Before my speculation on Boston’s prospects is dismissed as the sad musings of an unabashed homer, let me remind you that I picked the Yankees to win the AL East last year and didn’t pick the Red Sox to make the playoffs. But there have been some dramatic changes in both clubs this past off-season, with the Red Sox acting more like the free-spending Yankees and the Yankees acting more like the look-to-the-future Red Sox. The Red Sox payroll has crept up and the Yankees’ has come a wee bit down, so that the difference between the two is now only a paltry $35 million, or half that which separated the teams last year. Or in other words, mostly Alex Rodriguez, a difference fans in Boston are beginning to cherish.
The Yankees still boast the best top-to-bottom lineup in baseball, have improved their defense (getting Giambi off the field is a mercy and A-Rod can’t possibly lapse any more), and deepened the bullpen. They have also improved team chemistry, thanks to swapping out the scowling presence of Randy Johnson for yesteryear hero Andy Pettitte. Still, it remains to be seen if Pettitte can match even Johnson’s far from impressive contributions. While he is younger than Randy and can rival his grit, if not his stuff, he too has back woes. And unlike Johnson, Pettitte is not returning to the American League off a dominant season; last year, he gave up 238 hits in 214 innings. And he is hardly the biggest question mark in the Yankee rotation.
The Red Sox have significantly improved their starting rotation with the acquisition of Daisuke Matsuzaka, have bolstered the Manny and Big Papi show with free-agent signees Julio Lugo and J.D. Drew and, like the Yankees, have invested in a deeper, if not necessarily stellar bullpen. And by consigning Jonathan Papelbon to the closer’s role, they have effectively offset the Mariano Rivera factor. (To my mind Rivera has been the greatest difference-maker between the teams over the past decade.) If Matsuzaka approaches his reputation—just the equivalent, say, of Hideo Nomo’s rookie season (13-6, 2.54)—Red Sox pitching will trump the Yankees’ offensive juggernaut.
If this pick is, perhaps, two-parts conviction and one-part hope, so be it. The truth is that the Yankees have not appeared so vulnerable for a long time. At the same time, they scare me more than they have in years. While the Yankees may stumble in 2007, this season looms as a transition into a new era where the Yankees could once again dominate. It is the transition away from owner George Steinbrenner’s win-at-all-costs, buy-the-priciest-free agent approach. It put the odd couple, A-Rod and Jeter, side by side in the infield, placed a misfit of a Big Unit in the Yankees locker room and forced Gary Sheffield to play first base during the 2006 playoffs. It has brought a succession of high-priced pitchers to the mound—Johnson, Roger Clemens, Mike Mussina, Jaret Wright, Carl Pavano, Jose Contreras, Javier Vazquez—only a few of whom have fulfilled their promise in New York.
But now, with General Manager Brian Cashman at the helm and apparently in control, the Yankees are looking long term. The team rid itself of Johnson and Sheffield. It eschewed sentiment by letting Bernie Williams drift toward retirement and by denying contract extensions to aging battery-mates Mariano Rivera and Jorge Posada. And it refused to part with any of its top prospects, most notably Philip Hughes, for quick fixes. Instead, the Yankees have stocked up on young pitchers, a bottom-up approach that the team has in recent years ignored. It is also an approach that, coupled with shrewder investment of the team’s considerable resources in the free-agent market, should worry all fans of rival teams.
And so on to the predictions:
AL East: Boston Red Sox. I know I said this already, but I just wanted to see if given a second chance, I would stick to my guns. (Roger Clemens is a wild card in all this. If Houston gets off to a bad start and Clemens opts to return to Boston or New York, he could be a decisive factor. Clemens, however, is very attuned to baseball history. And I suspect he knows he can’t dominate American League hitters. After all, he was hardly dominant—4.35 and 3.91 ERAs in his last two Yankee seasons—when he left the American League for home after the 2003 season. Even for a chance at another ring, Clemens may not want to cap his career with the tarnish of some bloated stats.)
AL Central: Detroit Tigers. Once the doormat division, it may now be the strongest in baseball. The Tigers have the best rotation and the best bullpen, even with Todd Jones closing, and Sheffield’s ferocious bat in the middle of the lineup is exactly what the team needed. (That is other than a lot of work by their pitchers on fielding.) Cleveland, Chicago and Minnesota are all talented challengers.
AL West: With Barry Zito gone from the Oakland A’s rotation, the Angels have the best rotation in the West to go with a superb bullpen. And last year’s sluggish offense should be invigorated with the addition of some talented kids—Mike Napoli, Howie Kendrick, Casey Kotchman—as well as high-priced free agent Gary Matthews.
AL Wild Card: New York Yankees. October just wouldn’t be the same without them. But Cleveland, Minnesota, Chicago, Toronto, Oakland and Texas could all contend. With no weak divisions in the American League, no team has a significant scheduling advantage.
NL East: Atlanta Braves. After 14 straight division titles, the Braves went down with a loud thud last season. But they regrouped late in the season and addressed their pitching needs, particularly the bullpen, in the off-season. That should be enough to propel them back to their regular place on top of the heap. While the Mets still have a sensational lineup, their ancient and iffy rotation—will Pedro be back and, if so, will he be Pedro?—and spotty bullpen spells big trouble.
NL Central: Milwaukee Brewers. Major League Baseball has become more and more like the NFL, so every year there has to be a surprise team. Last year it was the Tigers. This year why not the Brewers? Milwaukee hasn’t even had a winning season since 1992. But the NL Central is the most balanced in baseball and could be won again with a record barely over .500. The Brewers have built a very balanced team loaded with young talent. They plucked Jeff Suppan away from the Cardinals, leaving the St. Louis rotation, after Chris Carpenter, with four guys who won a total of just 18 games last year. On paper, the Cubs, after a $290 million spending spree that landed them Alfonso Soriano, should excel. But the Cubs remain a throwback team, one that strikes out far too often and walks far too seldom. And Chicago boasts an outfield defense that can make pitchers weep. New manager Lou Piniella was mailing it in during his final days with Tampa Bay and will have to prove he still has the fire and can light one under his ballclub.
NL West: Los Angeles Dodgers. The addition of Jason Schmidt to the Dodgers rotation (not to mention his subtraction from a division rival) should be enough to tip the scales from the Padres to the Dodgers. After a couple years’ slumber, the Diamondbacks should be competitive again, making the NL West another extremely balanced division. Like the NFL, Major League Baseball has discovered that parity is a very fan-friendly concept.
NL Wild Card: New York Mets. There are lots of similarities between the two New York teams. And the Mets, like their cross-town rivals, have a lineup that is significantly better than any other in their league. It should be enough to get them into the October fray, too. But virtually the whole National League could be in this wild-card chase.
