Succeeding Nelson Mandela was never going to be easy. During his 27 years in prison, he came to embody a people’s drive for freedom. As president, he reached out to the country’s former white masters. Sometimes given to rash comments, he was not beyond criticism. But his support within the ANC was unquestioned. Mbeki never had that saintly aura. A former exile, he maneuvered to defeat other candidates and win his place as Mandela’s heir. But he has stumbled badly during the first two years of his five-year term, particularly in his handling of the AIDS pandemic and the crisis in Zimbabwe. Last week’s soap opera may be the best measure yet of just how badly. On its front page, the country’s leading political newspaper, the Mail and Guardian, framed a question once unthinkable: “Is this man fit to rule?”
Publicizing a dubious investigation seemed calculated to diminish those who might legitimately challenge Mbeki’s leadership. It also revealed a willingness to use state power in party politics. The backlash was intense. The opposition Democratic Alliance called for an investigation into the abuse of state resources. The three businessmen–former Gauteng premier Tokyo Sexwale, former Mpumalanga premier Mathews Phosa and former ANC secretary-general Cyril Ramaphosa–all denied wrongdoing. Among the groups that rushed to their defense was the powerful Congress of South African Trade Unions (COSATU). A pillar of the ANC’s tripartite alliance, it called Tshwete’s announcement “irresponsible.”
Mbeki has the most to fear from Ramaphosa because he needs his party’s nomination to run for a second term. Ramaphosa, a former COSATU leader, oversaw talks that ended apartheid and chaired the group that wrote a new constitution. In a moment of indiscretion, Mandela once said he would have preferred that Ramaphosa succeed him. In 1997 the businessman received the highest vote in elections to the ANC’s executive committee. And his international reputation led to his recent selection as one of two special envoys to the Northern Ireland conflict. Last week Mandela praised Ramaphosa. “It is he who is really responsible for the settlement that has led to a democratic South Africa,” he said after Tshwete’s announcement. That endorsement can’t have cheered a president whose long-term political prospects seem increasingly dim.
