But watching Wednesday’s Republican debate at the Reagan Library, I started to wonder if McCain would really be as formidable a foe for Democrats as the data suggests–especially if he has to endure a drawn-out battle with Romney over his conservative cred. There are two reasons for this:
Enthusiasm. It’s no secret that McCain has energetic enemies on the right; Rush Limbaugh, for example, recently said that if McCain “gets the nomination, it will destroy the GOP.” Conservatives cling to a litany of complaints: his votes against President Bush’s tax cuts and a constitutional amendment banning same-sex marriage; his support for embryonic stem cell research, stricter environmental regulation, looser immigration rules and campaign finance reform. And there’s never been any doubt that if McCain wins the nod, the already dispirited Republican base won’t turn out next November in Bush-level numbers. But what no one’s talking about is how much worse this enthusiasm gap will be if McCain continues to take flack from his right flank for the next few weeks–which is Romney’s strategy–and ends up winning anyway. Some Republicans will rally around the nominee, whomever he is. But others will be even more disenchanted with McCain than they are now. Not a good sign for the general.
Character. Pundits usually assume that if McCain loses a few votes on the right, he’ll compensate with support from the center. But the more Romney forces him to brag about his conservative credentials in the primaries, the more moderates he’ll alienate. I’m not saying that people will be turned off by hearing McCain say he was a “foot soldier in the Reagan Revolution” a dozen times a day; that’s a little simplistic. But they may balk at the sight of their “maverick” playing politics as usual.
This struck me several times during the debate, as McCain distorted Romney’s stance on withdrawal from Iraq, flubbed stats on Romney’s Massachusetts record and dodged a question about why he flip-flopped on the Bush tax cuts (not to mention the fact that he flip-flopped at all, declaring his just support in time for the Republican primary). Other politicians could probably get away with this stuff. But McCain’s appeal is almost exclusively personal, with exit polls showing that he loses among voters who choose based on issues and wins among those driven by matters of character; as Jonathan Martin notes, fans frequently use the words “straight shooter” or “he means what he says” or “hero” to describe the Arizona senator. That means that even tiny slips or inconsistencies–anything that contradicts McCain’s “maverick” persona–can shake his support.
If McCain wins the nomination, expect his Democratic opponent to pursue this line of attack. (Last night, for example, Obama wondered if “somewhere along the line, the straight talk express lost some wheels” while slamming him on his tax cut reversal.) He or she won’t lack grist. Take yesterday, when Arnold Schwarzenegger announced his endorsement of McCain while touring Solar Integrated, a green technology company that builds solar roofing panels. An eagle-eyed F.O.S. (Friend of Stumper) points out the event’s “rather shameless irony”:
The backdrop was meant to bolster McCain among Californians (and specifically California Republicans) who consider alternative energy a major voting issue. But in December, the Senate voted on a major energy bill that included a significant provision to extend tax credits for alternative-energy companies for eight years – without the credits, these start-ups basically have no chance to survive–and McCain was the only senator who didn’t vote on the cloture tally to avoid GOP filibuster. The measure failed by one vote, 59-40–so basically, McCain single-handedly stuck a dagger in the heart of California alternative energy companies, then a month later showed up at one to accept an endorsement.
A fair criticism? It’s debatable. McCain was stumping in Sioux City and Davenport, Iowa on the day in question (Dec. 13, 2007), and it’s hardly unusual for senators to miss votes while on the presidential campaign trail. (Obama, for one, famously skipped a key Iran vote.) Plus, McCain deserves credit for speaking out against climate change when few in his party were willing to confront the challenge. But it’s not hard to imagine a Democrat citing something like this as evidence that McCain avoided a politically tricky situation and wasn’t there for environmental activists and businesses when it counted. And with enough examples like that in the air, it’s not hard to imagine McCain’s “character” taking a hit next by November.
