NEWSWEEK: It’s now 10 years since Croatia declared independence from Yugoslavia. For a long time, the United States did not favor this move and was the last major power to recognize the country. What is the U.S. role today?
Tonino Picula: I think the United States of America was not the only one taken by surprise by the developments in the world of the former Soviet zone of influence. Even people on the ground in the former republics of Yugoslavia did not expect war, conflict, bloodshed, destruction, forced migration and other atrocities…. I think it’s much more important to learn a lesson from the past and introduce a new type of politics, which will be able to prevent further conflicts, wars and atrocity, not only in southeast Europe but elsewhere in the world.
What were you doing when Croatia declared independence?
Before I became a politician and diplomat, I was a soldier. Before that I was a professor of sociology. It is natural if you are involved in politics and events in my part of Europe.
Did you fight in the war?
I volunteered in the very beginning of the war, and I defended my hometown, Sibenik. Then I left the army. I was drafted again after [1995’s] Operation Storm [the Croatian effort to recapture territories the Serbs had seized in 1991].
What lessons should the United States learn from regions like the Balkans over the past 10 years?
The United States has to be on the ground, especially in situations of crisis. Recent history showed very clearly that only the United States has enough capacity to put an end to conflicts in the world. But it’s much cheaper to prevent conflicts. I am calling the United States to develop conflict-prevention systems, not only conflict-management systems.
What does that translate into in the Balkans today?
Conflict prevention: Macedonia, first of all. I remember very well, in the first months, first years, of Serbian aggression on the other former Yugoslavia republics, Macedonia was saved, thanks to the very proper and instant reaction by the United Nations, by the United States. They invented UNPREDEP [the UN Preventive Deployment Mission, the first preventive deployment of UN peacekeepers.] It not only protected [Macedonians] from Serbians but, in a way, UNPREDEP prevented internal Macedonian conflict.
Ten years after that it’s a paradox: Milosevic is behind bars, and war [has] started in Macedonia. There is no UNPREDEP [which was withdrawn in February 1999 because China, upset that Macedonia had opened diplomatic relations with Taiwan, vetoed an extension of the mandate,] and the international community is still discussing what to do in Macedonia. I don’t think the world learned its lessons…. I think Macedonia could be saved, and lives could be saved, if the United Nations, the U.S., developed UNPREDEP as they did 10 years ago.
Is anywhere else on the edge of explosion?
I think Macedonia in a way was the last in a line. I think peace and security and cooperation are very fragile in the region…. I think it’s not a good message if the European Union and the United States even discuss possible withdrawal from the region. I don’t think it’s smart politics. I think involvement is a cheaper solution than withdrawal. It’s very hard to be separate from the problems today, especially for a global power like the United States of America.
What will happen if there were a withdrawal?
Withdrawal is bad news. It will encourage extremists and organized crime to wait a little longer and then be active again.
Is the current situation a job for a military, or police?
Both, both…. Don’t forget in Macedonia, we are talking about war.
Montenegro’s leadership was loyal to NATO during the Kosovo conflict, but the U.S. government tried to discourage Montenegro from breaking apart from Serbia and ending the Yugoslav federation. Where do you come down?
For us, both Serbia and Montenegro are our immediate neighborhood. It’s up to them to decide do they want a common state or not. I believe Yugoslavia as a concept of state togetherness is not working any more. If we want to learn a lesson from the past, we have to note it is impossible to maintain any kind of Yugoslavia by force. It is too risky. I think there is still room for negotiation between Podgorica and Belgrade. But the final decision must be made by people on the referendum. In my opinion we are witnessing a final phase of the dissolving of Yugoslavia.
In Macedonia, is there something more the international community, including the United States, ought to be doing now to stop this terrible bloodshed?
This is a period of confusion. I think this broad coalition government in Macedonia is among the last chances for a political dialogue in Macedonia. I think the U.S.A. and E.U. have to find a way to assure that all sides are present around a table when negotiations start. They have to discuss and encourage, first of all, Albanians to stop shooting, to try to find a proper solution for their position within the Macedonian state, and they have to convince Slav Macedonians that they have to provide Albanians in Macedonia with more freedom, they have to reform public administration, they have to include Macedonian Albanians into the army and police, school system and some other things. It’s the only way out from this conflict. The alternative is a long-burning war in Macedonia which could spill over the Macedonian borders in different directions, with different consequences.
In Bosnia, the Office of the High Representative (OHR) cracked down on Croat nationalists by staging a massive raid on a commercial bank in Mostar in which they left money and records strewn about [See “Bank Job In a Battle Zone,” NEWSWEEK, April 30). Is the affair over?
It was ugly footage on TV. I have no doubt about the motives which drove the Office of the High Representative to do this. Now it’s very important to maintain the credibility of the international community. If they fail to pay back money to the small savings holders, who have nothing to do with the criminal activities of certain hard-liners in Mostar, it will hurt the interest of the international community and Bosnia [and] Herzegovina more than any extremist action. [And] Hercegovacka Banka must be put into function once again with a new management, new people.
What is your basic message to U.S. Secretary of State Colin Powell?
Stay with your words. I was impressed with the very clear message Colin Powell conveyed to other ministers and me both in Skopje and Budapest: the United States will maintain its presence in southeast Europe. It’s a very good message, with certain political weight. Such a message has put an end to all gossiping.
Stay for the duration?
Stay in the region.
