Observers have spent the past few months fretting that the longer this snipping and sniping goes on, the harder it will be for the party to unify around an eventual nominee. Now the worrywarts have some statistics to “support” their suspicions. According a Gallup survey released this morning, 28 percent of Clinton supporters would vote for John McCain over Barack Obama in the general election, and 19 percent of Obama supporters would chose McCain over Clinton.“The data,” says Gallup, “suggest that the continuing and sometimes fractious Democratic nomination fight could have a negative impact for the Democratic Party in next November’s election.”
I don’t doubt that this contest is more polarized than what we’ve seen in the past. When race and gender replace ideology and policy as points of distinction, the battleground becomes personal, not political; the longer the campaign, the more time each side has to suspect (and accuse) the other of racism or sexism. Needless to say, those exchanges, amplified by a drama-addicted media, wreak more havoc than disagreements over ethanol or education. According to a recent Pew poll, for example, 20 percent of white Democrats and 14 percent of Democratic women say they would defect to McCain if Obama were the nominee. So even though I expect many of these turncoats to untwist their knickers in time for Election Day–especially after their candidate of choice spends months campaigning for his or her victorious rival (or even running on the same ticket)–I think it’s safe to assume that a greater number than usual (which is about 10 percent, according to Gallup) will cross party lines.
To which I say: grow up. Elections aren’t about spite. They’re about picking a president. If you truly think that McCain would make a better POTUS than Obama, go ahead and defect. But I doubt that nearly 30 percent of Clinton’s Democratic base would rather elect a Republican who disagrees with them on Iraq, taxes, the economy and education than a Democrat whose views match their own (and their candidate’s). Ditto for the Obamaniacs who threaten to jump ship. But maybe I’m wrong. Maybe not electing Clinton or Obama will be more important to these people than steering the country in their party’s desired direction. If so, and if these defectors propel McCain to victory in November, it won’t be the media, in the end, that diminishes the importance of “the issues”–it will be the voters. And that would just be childish.
